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Macroeconomic and sector developments

In their autumn forecast published on 14 October 2008, the leading German economic research institutes expect domestic economic growth to slow significantly to a maximum of 0.2% in 2009, compared with the growth of 2.2% forecast for 2008. The main reasons for this downturn are seen in the international financial crisis and the resultant negative implications for the real economy, especially for new orders and industrial production. This situation is being exacerbated by companies only being able to obtain credit financing on worse terms than in previous years. This development can also be expected to impact on the energy industry in the course of 2009.

In the wake of the financial market crisis and the downturn in the global economy, crude oil prices have fallen substantially from their record levels of US$ 145 per barrel in July 2008 (North Sea Brent) to under US$ 50 per barrel as of 20 November 2008. Future crude oil prices will be determined by developments on the international financial markets and the performance of the global economy.

Alongside competition and grid regulation, the key challenges facing our sector include the threat of climate change, dependence on ever scarcer primary energy resources and the long-term rise in commodity and energy prices. The implementation of political climate protection targets (please see Focus on Markets of the Future) will permanently change energy supply systems. Viewed realistically, it will not be possible to cover future energy requirements with renewable energies alone, at least in the medium term, even if we expand our share of regenerative energies, save energy and achieve efficiency enhancements.