In the course of the past year, the European Union has witnessed a moderate improvement in its economic situation, a development which has been encouraged by low interest rates. Eurostat, the European statistics office, expects the 25 member states to see GDP growth of 2.0% in 2004. Growth of 2.4% has been forecast for 2005. The EU Commission is of the opinion that a turnaround has thus been achieved and that an economic revival is now underway in Europe. Exports have risen thanks to the growth in the global economy, but this cannot disguise the fact that domestic demand remains weak. It remains to be seen whether a further increase in primary energy prices will dampen the economic recovery.
The expansion of the European Union to include ten new member states has changed the political and economic environment for the German energy industry. We expect to see improved market opportunities in our foreign target markets of the Czech Republic and Poland on account of the positive economic stimuli and increasing legal security resulting from their accession to the EU. As a result of the ongoing increase in their exports, these countries expect to see GDP growth of between 2.9% and 4.6% in 2004. Following its stagnation in the previous year, German GDP is expected to report slight growth for the overall 2004 financial year. According to the Autumn Survey of the six leading German economic research institutes, the German economy is expected to grow by around 1.8% in 2004. | |
